The Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa) has announced that total coffee production in Brazil in 2025 will reach 51.8 million 60-kg bags, representing a 4.4% decrease compared to the previous year. National average productivity also declined, estimated at 28 bags per hectare, a 3% negative variation.
Main Reasons for the Production Decline
The drop in coffee production is attributed to several factors, including:
- Adverse weather conditions, with prolonged dry periods and temperature fluctuations affecting crops.
- Rising production costs, including fertilizers, pesticides, and labor.
- The biennial cycle of coffee cultivation, which naturally alternates between years of higher and lower productivity.
Effects on the Coffee Market
With lower coffee supply, experts point to the possibility of rising coffee bag prices, directly impacting producers, exporters, and consumers. The effects may be felt both in the domestic market and internationally, given that Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer and exporter.
Outlook for the Coffee Sector
Despite the downturn, Brazilian coffee farming remains a global benchmark. Research and investments in sustainable agricultural technologies, efficient crop management, and more resilient coffee varieties can help mitigate production fluctuations and strengthen the sector’s competitiveness.
Stay tuned to our blog for more news and insights on the coffee market and agricultural production trends in Brazil.